Job Openings Continued Their Graceful Normalization in June
Job openings and quits declined modestly, pointing to gradually normalizing labor market turnover
Real wage growth has returned to its pre-pandemic pace and the gender wage gap has reached its narrowest point on record
In the year through Q2 2023, over-the-year real wage growth finally returned to the pre-pandemic pace of about 1.7%, according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages still have considerable ground to make up, following two quarters of sub-trend growth, and six straight quarters of real wage declines before that.
Jobs Market Shows Signs of Cooling as Summer Hits
June is a huge month for hiring—for summer jobs, new college graduates, and teens. Given strong recent growth in air travel, restaurant dining, and hotel occupancy—paired with a 15% year-to-date increase in the stock market and a recent rebound in consumer confidence—the June Jobs Report was poised to be another blowout. Instead, it showed signs of the labor market cooling—perhaps the result of the Fed’s rate hikes finally biting.
The May JOLTS Report
Job openings declined by half a million, but 3 of 4 key indicators—hiring, quits, and layoffs—improved, suggesting that the labor market remains robust
The May Jobs Report Sends Mixed Signals
A contradictory May Jobs Report sent mixed signals about the state of the U.S. labor market. The establishment survey was a blockbuster, reporting a 339K payroll job gain; the household survey was a downer, reporting a 310K employment loss and an unusually large increase in the unemployment rate from 3.4% to 3.7%.
U.S. Employee Turnover is Almost Back to Normal
The pandemic unleashed a turnover tsunami, but now the quits rate is almost back to what it was before
The Job Market Slows But Defies Expectations Yet Again
The U.S. labor market has now beaten expectations for over a year.
Labor Productivity Decreased in 2023 Q1 While Labor Costs Remained High
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity—measured as output produced per hour worked—decreased 2.7% in the first quarter of 2023 as output increased by 0.2% and hours worked increased by 3.0%.
Job Openings and Layoffs Normalize as Labor Demand Cools
Job openings reported today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics fell approximately 4% in March, following the trend seen in online job postings. Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges rose 16%, nearing pre-pandemic levels. Both shifts show that demand for labor is cooling overall.
Inflation Moderates Further, CPI Shows
Today’s CPI report shows that the strict monetary policy is working. The topline inflation rate slowed down to 5.0% over the year, and 4.0% on a 3-month annualized basis. This was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending May 2021, while the super core services inflation that sets the tone for the Fed decelerated slightly in March.
Labor Market Is Softening Further, Giving Comfort to the Fed
The latest jobs report released today shows that the labor market continues to soften. That should reduce inflationary pressures in the coming months and give the Federal Reserve greater confidence regarding the inflation outlook.
Job Openings Ease But Hit New Record in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Job openings reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics were revised downwards for January and fell further in February, following the trend seen in online job postings.
Inflation Comes in Hot, Putting the Fed in a Tough Spot
Despite overall inflation decelerating over the month, both core inflation and super core inflation—core services excluding shelter—accelerated in February. Today’s CPI report indicates that the inflation rate may take longer to reach the 2% target than markets were anticipating.
The February Jobs Report Is the Best of All Worlds
Today’s Jobs Report is the best of all worlds: slower but still very robust job growth paired with substantially lower wage growth.
January JOLTS Report Points to a Cooling Labor Market
Job openings reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics were revised upwards for December and remained sky-high in January, even as survey data on business hiring plans and active online job postings pointed to declining demand for labor.
Inflation Remains Elevated, Signaling More Rate Hikes This Year
Today’s CPI report shows a 0.5% increase in the monthly inflation rate, which is slightly higher than economists were expecting. Going forward, inflation is unlikely to maintain its recent pace of deceleration.
Labor Productivity Improved for Two Consecutive Quarters
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity—measured as output produced per hour worked—increased 3% in the last quarter of 2022 as output increased by 3.5% and hours worked increased by 0.5%.
December JOLTS Report Underscores Remarkable Year for U.S. Labor Market
2022 stands out as a record-breaking year in the labor market, according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for December.
Core Inflation Hits 15-Month Low, Even as Unemployment Falls
The Fed warned that unemployment would have to rise for inflation to come down, but the CPI declined outright in December even as unemployment fell to a 50-year low.